Issued: 12:00pm, Wednesday, 22nd February 2023
The 2023 general election will hold on Saturday, 25th February 2023 to elect the President and members of the National Assembly, and on Saturday, 11th March 2023 to elect 28 of 36 State Governors and members of the State Houses of Assembly. This general election will be the seventh in the series of general elections held since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999. A total of 15,331 candidates will be vying for various positions during the election: 18 candidates will contest for the seat of the President, 420 governorship candidates, 4,223 candidates will contest for the National Assembly seats, and 10,232 candidates for the State Houses of Assembly seats.
Today, the Election Situation Room opens with the launch of the report of our Pre-Election Assessment. The report presents the findings of an assessment of Nigeria’s pre-election environment ahead of the 2023 general election. It provides a contextual analysis of the socio-economic and political factors shaping the 2023 election, examines INEC’s preparations for the elections, and highlights the key issues and security challenges that would define the election. With the polls a few days away, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has assured Nigerians of its preparedness for the elections. A lot will, however, depend on the resilience of voters against several challenges, particularly fear of violence and the deteriorating socio-economic conditions in the country.
Situation Room’s Deployment
Situation Room’s observation of the conduct of 2023 general election will take into cognisance the electoral environment, and use INEC’s preparedness for the election as a basis for assessing its conduct of the polls. In December 2021, the Situation Room launched its Credibility Threshold for the 2023 General Election which identified issues and factors that could cause the 2023 general election to fall below, remain within, or go beyond the standard established by previous elections. It also outlined expectations from stakeholders to mitigate issues that constitute key risks to the credibility of the general election.
For the 2023 general election, Situation Room will deploy 2,410 observers with at least 3 observers per Local Government Area (LGA) in every State of the Federation. This number includes 131 Persons with Disabilities. Situation Room will also rely on information from its partners and networks deploying observers. On election day, the Election Situation Room will be the main hub for receiving data and reports from the field, which will be analysed and disseminated through statements and reports.
Election Administration
INEC has expressed commitment to maintaining the timetable and schedule of activities for the general election it announced nearly one year ago and has worked towards ensuring that the general election holds on the set dates without postponement. While INEC has accomplished several items in its Schedule of Activities for the conduct of the 2023 general election, there have been some major gaps in its preparations. Situation Room recorded numerous complaints regarding collection of Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVCs). Much of the complaints relate to the unavailability of PVCs for both new and old registrants. As the election is only a few days away, it is clear that several Nigerians will be disenfranchised because of the failure of the Commission to issue their PVCs. Furthermore, considering that the number of PVCs collected is now a key element of the election result management, the Situation Room is concerned that INEC is yet to publish the data of the number of PVCs collected 3 days to the election. Situation Room has also received reports of delays of trainings of ad hoc staff across the country, delays in deployment of materials such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to the States, and shortages in the number of ad hoc staff available for the elections. The Situation Room is particularly concerned about the last-minute redeployment of staff in some States and considers this action as very disruptive to effective election management. The Situation Room is also worried about how the Commission is managing the Naira scarcity caused by the Naira Swap Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Reports received by the Situation Room indicate that INEC LGA officials in many States are still awaiting disbursement of election funds few days to the general election.
Election Security
The Election Security Threat Assessment produced by Situation Room partners presents a grim picture of the elections. The security situation across the country appears to be deteriorating as we enter the election week. The South-East region, in particular, has witnessed escalation of violence with the disruption of INEC ad hoc staff training in Nnewi South LGA of Anambra State by hoodlums, and attacks on police stations in Oyi and Idemili North LGAs of the State. In spite of this grim security outlook, the Nigeria Police, which is the lead agency on election security, is yet to present a clear and detailed election security plan to the public. The Situation Room welcomes the announcement that about 400,000 security personnel will be deployed for the election. However, we call on the leadership of the Nigeria Police to provide additional information regarding the deployment plans, especially the contact details of the commanding officers at zonal, state, area, and divisional levels to enable stakeholders liaise with these officials. The Nigeria Police and other security agencies have a primary responsibility to safeguard election officials as well as other election stakeholders, including voters, polling agents, election observers, the media and service providers.
Activities of Political Parties and Candidates
The Situation Room is pleased that campaigns and other political party activities ahead of the 2023 general election have progressed without major hitches. However, Situation Room is concerned that the longstanding challenges with electioneering campaigns in Nigeria still remain. Although, there seems to be a determination by the candidates to focus on issues rather than on personalities during the 2023 general election campaigns, as shown in the willingness of some of the candidates to engage in dialogues, debates and townhall meetings; hate speech, indecent language, mobilization of ethnic and religious sentiments, and attacks on the personality of specific contestants were observed during the campaigns. While many of the candidates tried to focus on issues, their supporters were engaged in vicious personal abuse, slander and sectional mobilization. Fake news, misinformation and disinformation festered online, and social media platforms hosted unwholesome memes and jests targeting specific candidates, which have tended to undermine the very essence of electioneering campaigns.
The political campaigns also witnessed high levels of violence, with available records showing that 52 acts of political violence occurred in 22 States within just one month (between 8 October and 9 November 2022). These incidents led to the death of 24 persons, while over 20 others were injured. Since November 2022, cases of political violence have spiralled across the country. Campaigns ahead of the 2023 general elections have been further hampered by the tendency of some State governors/governments to stifle free campaigns by opposition political parties and their candidates through issuing draconian orders, enacting obnoxious laws, and clamping down on media houses. Cases of restriction of rights to assembly and expression have been reported in at least 12 States.
Conclusion
Although the current situation in the country has not been particularly positive, as citizens have faced severe hardship owing to fuel and Naira scarcity, we are positive that citizens are ready and willing to cast their votes. Every general election in Nigeria comes with its own challenges and we rely on the assurance of INEC that it is prepared to conduct the election. Situation Room commends the Commission for the efforts made so far despite huge challenges, however the Commission can do more to ensure a credible poll. Situation Room urges INEC to do its utmost best and take final steps to strategically address the gaps and challenges highlighted. It is the duty of all stakeholders to support INEC to deliver on its mandate, including the federal government and its agencies.
Situation Room calls on President Muhammadu Buhari to ensure that the agencies of government that are involved with the elections deliver on their responsibilities, particularly the CBN which introduced the Naira Swap Policy very close to the elections. For the first time, the BVAS will be deployed nationwide in a general election. This makes the National Communications Commission (NCC) a key stakeholder in the process. The Commission will be held responsible for any network issues and internet outages on election day. Security agencies are expected to deploy adequately to hotspots as identified by INEC and other stakeholders to forestall violence.
Situation Room specifically calls on the political parties to conduct themselves in a peaceful manner and to discourage violence by their supporters. Parties and their candidates will need to uphold the spirit and contents of the Peace Accord they will sign later today. They have a moral and legal obligation to abide by this agreement, and there will be consequences for reneging on the agreement in accordance with the provisions of the Electoral Act.
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SIGNED:
Ene Obi
Convener, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room
Asma’u Joda
Co-Convener, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room
James Ugochukwu
Co-Convener, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room